Analysis of the Demographics in Europe

Analysis of the Demographics in atomic make sense 63The Demographic Sector in atomic get along 63This dissertation entrust present a historical oer look of atomic number 63an community trends before examining in great(p)er detail specific causes and effects of accredited demographic qualifys. In particular, demographic modifys which occurred in the UK between 1950 and 1990 and the frugal exits associated with rejuvenates in east Europe will be examined with a view to assessing the possible wel utter virtu e truly in allye implications. environmental stress is increasing, due to both unsustainable expenditure and production patterns (including high imagery phthisis in wealthy countries and among better-off groups in all countries) and demographic factors much(prenominal) as rapid people accession, state distribution and migration. 1.1 Historical OverviewIn a European context, the macrocosm was never more than than than 100,000. This represented a far-offa foca l point lower carrying capacity than gorillas, as pityings were carnivores (Emceed and J nonp argonils, 1978). Human tribe began to spread as the Ice Age startinged to retreat (25,000 10,000 B.C.). Migrations to a faultk broadcast into the Ar tic Circle, across the Bering Straits, and also to Australia via Ind binglesian archipelago.The human commonwealth in 10,000 BC was probably double what it was in 100,000 BC (earliest appearance of homo sapiens) stand at or so 4 meg. The increase had been achieved by increasing weave and opening up saucily territories - non by b ar-ass forage technologies. community assiduity was thus traditionally low. This was to change with the switch from traditional food (hunter)ga at that placer to food production (Old Stone Age paleolithic 30,000 BC -to smart Stone Age neolithic 6,000 BC) and as a burden, population compactness change magnitude from 0.1 km2 to 1 per km2.In the compass point from 1000BC 400 BC the earthly concer ns population doubled from10m to 20m. Greeces population however, tripled to 3m. Greecepopulation step-up meant that they were able to forge a new civilisation and become the plethoric force. Malthusian leads that uncontrolled population growth can potentially wind to population exacerbate as result of increased competition for resources, war, deficit and p overty,were fewwhat substantialized through the Asia Minor conquest and an purgetual decline in the Greek population to approximately 2 one billion million by 1 AD.The population of Italy was the next major European country to experience major growth. By 300 BC the population of Italy itemizeed 4million people. By 1 AD this had go up to 7 million whilst the full(a) European population was besides 31 million. By 200 AD the Roman Empire had 46 million subjects including approximately 78% of this total in Europe. This hint declined to 26 million in total during the following400 years. This obviously leads to the quest ion whether or not sparingal/ political / military culture is a precursor to, or issue of population suppuration. In Greece the malthusian limits were reached which resulted in out-migration / foreign conquests. hence the population of Greece fell between 300 B.C. and A.D. 1, to 2 million . universe of discourse density also fell four-fold.From the 8th centimeimeury onwards on that point was a new increase in population,leading to a population train of approximately 36 million by 1000 A.D.,which compares to peak figures from the classical period. Population then continued to increase rapidly for nearly 300 years. By and large,increases were in the north and west, but thither were also increases from the east (e.g. Portugal). The population in these regions were,however, relatively low to begin with. The continued population increase was brought to an abrupt halt in 1347 by bubonic evil -Black terminal. Increases in death rate and reductions in nutrition had tremendou s impact on the introductions population. Between a quarter and third of the population were to return during this period. There was however, eventually a general recuperation and by 1500 the gentleman population was nearing 80 million, increasing to 100 million by 1600. contempt Religious wars, plague and scotch upheaval which changed the political scene during the seventeenth snow, population rose to approximately 120million by 1700. Economic factors were vital in assuring continued population growth and were symbolized by better technology, sea route sand growing towns. The period 1750 1845 was marked by one of major growth.During this period the population level rose from 140 million in 1750 to 250 million in 1845. Mortality changed definitively resulting in growth macrocosm assured unless and until fertility fell. The modernisation and urbanisation cycle had begun with famine and plague seemingly belonging to the past, although there was an extreme exception Ireland. Despite this, Europes population reached 450million by 1914. Population in the 20th Century was to be ravaged by both war (WWI and WWII) and mass out-migration to the USA, Canada and Latin the States.2. Main demographic trends in the UK post WWIIBetween 1951 and 1981, the total population of the UK increased from50.4million to 55.9million. The total public figure of stick outs rose steadily from c.800,000 in 1950 to a peak of over one million (1,015,000) in1964. This was the so-called go bad boom of the 1950s and early sixties. In 1964 the crude birth browse of the UK stood at an all time high of18.8 per 1000. In 1963 the oral hitch pill first became available to women, and in 1968 the Abortion Act legalised abortion in certain circumstances.The combination of these two factors, especially the former, initiated a stamp out-turn in birth count which continued for 13 years until 1977 when the number of remain births was 657,000 to concede ac rude birth rate of 11.8 per 10 00. For two years, 1976 and 1977, the number of births was actually less than the number of deaths and the country briefly experienced a natural decrease of population .Subsequently, during the 1980s, the number of births rose to about700,000 per year to give a crude birth rate of about 13 per 1000. This frail up-turn in birth rate has been explained as a result of couples postponing the start of a family. Between 1965 and 1985 the average age of mothers having their first electric razor increased from 21 to 27 years of age.Mortality in the UK since 1950 has been subject to far less fluctuation than fertility during the same period. The total number of deaths in the UK each year since 1950 has been between 600,000 and 700,000. Crude death evaluate during a period of 40 years attain stubbornly remained within the black foodstuff of 11 to 13 per 1000. This is significantly high than the crude mortality rate of termination other countries of North West Europe. The causes of de ath have learnn on a lower floorsized change over the period with diseases of the circulatory system and cancer steadfastly established as the main killing diseases and jointly accounting for over 70% of all deaths by the 1980s.The failure of the UK to reduce its mortality rate during the second half of the 20th vitamin C has been attributed to various factors namely, declining standards of health care, the concern sofa large stock of obsolete slum housing, high unemployment range and high levels of poverty and deprivation. In the late-1980s, child mortality grade, probably the closely sensitive indicator of the quality of the amicable and physical environment for human life, actually rose in many parts of the country.Detailed statistics for the numbers of migrants get in and leaving the UK only ex hightail it back as far as 1964. Comprehensive statistics for the numbers of immigrants and emigrants are not available for the period of the 1950s and early-1960s when larg e numbers of West Indian sand Asians entered the UK. Post-1964 statistics grass dispenseable short- landmark fluctuations in the numbers of both immigrants and emigrants. However, with the exception of on the nose one or two years, the moolah migration balance is a invalidating one that is to say, in most years more people ensue than enter the UK. Despite the popular myths about the flood of immigrants entering the UK, the universe is that the UK Lisa net exporter of population in most years.Since the early 1960s,the numbers entering the UK have been checked and lessen by succession of Immigration Acts (1962, 1968, 1972 etc) knowing to make the conditions of entry more pauperisming and settlement in the UK more difficult. The long-run trend for in-migration and emigration appear to be related to ride factors in the source areas sort of than pullfactors in the destination area. Thus, peaks of immigration appear to be related to particular overseas events. For example, th e expulsion of Asians from Uganda by President Am in in 1972 corresponds with a minor peak in the flow of immigrants into the UK. Conversely, the rising tide of unemployment in the UK during the early-1980s corresponds with as inhabit up-turn in the numbers leaving the country between 1981 and 1985.One of the most obvious demographic changes in post-war Britain has been its variety into a multi-racial and multi-cultural clubhouse.rior to 1991, the UK Census did not include questions on race and ethnicity, so that it was impossible to obtain very(prenominal) information about the size and distribution of minority groups. However,place-of-birth statistics derived from the census show that by 1981about six percent of the UK population was overseas-born. The total percentage of overseas-born population is not large, but it is very unevenly distributed. Racial and ethnic minorities tend to cluster in the inner city districts of particular towns and cities. Discrimination in the fiel ds of housing and employment produced tensions and unrest which finally erupted in urban riots in 1981 and again in 1985.3. Post-war political economyThe year 1989 tell a great change within eastern Europe, as revolutions end-to-end the region swept away the communist governments,marking an end to conditions of political, economic and loving repression. The major impetus in precipitating change was the desire for license on the part of the masses. Allied to this motive for mixer put downdom was a general will for better standards of living conditions,with the belief of the majority organism that this could be achieved through the reorganisation of society along the lines of occidental-style dissolve trade economies.There was certainly a requisite for substantial economic reform within Eastern Europe in terms of liberate up the food grocery economy and the need for many type of transformation strategy. However, a great deal of debate is concerned not with the actual ne ed for transformation, but with the actual method of transformation. One can best outline the seam in terms of the proponents of a gradualist approach to transformation. There are a number of economists who favour a constitutional approach to transformation, statement the undeniable for speed, comprehensiveness and simultaneity of change, who have been accused by other economists of stressing an over reliance on the market, and of failing to fully understand the nature of market economies. To explore the debate fully it is necessary for one to consider the claims of those economists that are in favour or the beginning approach to transformation.Both economic logic and the political internet site argue for a rapid and comprehensive process of transformation (Lipton and Sacs, 1990). This quote is from two of the main advocates of the radical approach. They stress the speed and comprehensiveness of change within Eastern Europe, believing that there should be a seamless web of renewing.The first stage, they claim, should be achieving a macroeconomic stability structural reforms cannot be put in place without a working worth system a working price system cannot be put into place without ending excess demand and creating a convertible currency and a credit squeeze and tightfitting macroeconomic policy cannot be sustained unless prices are realistic, so that there is a rational basis for deciding which firms should be allowed to close. Thus as crucial to their arguments for a comprehensive reform process is the need for real structural adjustment, and for this macroeconomic shock to be accompanied by a number of associated measures such(prenominal) as selling off state assets, freeing up the individual(a) celestial sphere, establishing procedures for bankruptcy, the p fixity of a social credential net and widespread tax reforms.Advocates of shock therapy transformation use a number of political reasons for their emphasis upon rapidity. Perhaps the most important of the political reasons is that the new governments would be best able to carry out strong measures at the outset of their office, and thus deny opponents the chance to subvert the process of change and retain some of the irrationalities of the old style regime. A further argument in favour of the shock therapy transformation is that there is a view of the market as being an governing bodyal package, that it is an compoundd and organic whole, the elements of which cannot be introduced one Bata time and in a gradual fashion. Thus certain economists have argued that the only way for the market system to function is if all of it score institutions are introduced synchronously, with the core institutions being a legal infrastructure, private property, free markets and prices, competition, and macroeconomic policy instruments.However, the shock therapy approach to economic transformation has benignities by a number of economists. Although by common consensus is a expresse d necessity for change the shock therapy approach presents us with a number of difficulties. Perhaps the sterling(prenominal) problem concerns the nature of markets, for there is pocket-size noesis of how tactually establish a market system. The situation in Eastern Europe is most certainly unique, for never before have there been attempts to establish a market economies from the wreckage of the communist system,since historically the teaching of free markets went hand in hand with the process of industrialisation. Post communist countries,however, do have a more or less developed industrial infrastructure,social services and political expectations to be governed in some sort of western democratic fashion. In short, our knowledge does not extend to the conditions under which Soviet type economies have to be reformed ( survival el, 1992).Andreas Pick el identify a number of criticisms of the shock therapy. The emphasis placed upon comprehensive change stresses the need for the insane asylum of a critical minimum mass of market institutions necessary for the function of the market economy. Picketer that at best we have only sketchy knowledge of what thiscritical minimum mass is, and that claims as to the necessity for comprehensive change ignore the complex realities of the situation.Take for example, what Perry in his list of measures with deference to the creation of free markets with free prices there must be free entry into the market and free exit from it. This mans that there are no barriers to entering market transactions, that workers and manager scan be fired, and that unprofitable firms go bankrupt. There is not as ingle existing market economy that fulfils this destiny (Pick el,1992). Therefore how can we hope to ascertain what is necessary for the wholesale meaning of the market economy.The justification for speed on the part of the shock therapists owe sits origins to a conception of two clearly defined and opposite systems, those of colle ctivism and capitalism. Speed is necessary in the transformation because plan and market institutions are said to be incompatible, that the new system will work seriously or not at all as lon gas it contains too many elements of the old system.Pick el argues that this is merely another way of invoking the critical mass argument again. Granted that the quick establishment of all-important(a) institutions crucial for the success of reforms, at which point is it possible to slow this down in identify to reduce, for example, some of the social costs of transformation, or to consider alternative options (Pick el,1992). As with the critical mass argument we have little way of determining how quickly or for how long should the process be continued with pace.The necessity for simultaneity, as emphasized by the proponents of the shock approach, is criticised by Pickle as revealing problems with the radicals conception of economics as systems. Pick el mentionss statement that the need for simultaneous action on the institutional front arises from the holistic nature of systems, their essentially integrated order. Pick el then attacks this stance,claiming that the market system only exists in textbooks, that there are as many institutional configurations as there are actually existing market economies.Essentially, claims as to the necessary institution sand processes are somewhat speculative, for when one considers todaymarket economies one can see that there have been numerous stages of growth, development and mutation. nearly none of the modern market economies have developed along the lines of simultaneous establishment of core institutions as prescribed by the shock therapist theorists,suggesting it is indeed possible for passageway to the market to be accomplished in disjointed and incoherent ways.It is most certainly possible for one to claim that economists who emphasise the speed, immediacy, and comprehensiveness of reforms in Eastern Europe, both overestimat e the properties of the market and misunderstand the nature of market economies. It is important for one to bear in mind that the major difficulty that exists in the attempts to undergo the radical transition process as prescribed by the shock therapists is that the wholesale institutional transformation produces range of unintended consequences that will undermine the realisation of the sea captain goal (Pick el, 1992). To this end Pick el uses the example of East Germany in order to illustrate the ideal empirical test case for the strengths and weaknesses of the radical strategy.Pick el begins by claiming that the two treaties between the FRG and the GDR, on monetary, economic and social union and on unification, created what proponents of the shock therapy deem essential the spry creation of what are considered to be the essential practical and economic institutions and the rules of capitalist democracy (Picked,1992). Pick el claims that the radical shock therapy approach in East Germany created a number of unforeseen consequences which possessed implications for the future development of the country. The first of these consequences was the collapse of the state sector, resulting in massive unemployment and serious problems in the existing private sector, something which is still affecting Germanys economy.The second consequence was that the restitution of pre-communist property rights and titles, which produced hundreds of thousands of claims and created an uncertain atmosphere for investors. The third unforeseen consequence was that there was an uninterrupted migration of workers from east to west and the fourth was the so cio-psychological and political disembowelment of large sectors of the East German population, that is, the colonisation or creation of a de facto group of second class citizens.The argument here is that the radical strategy in Germany failed in crucial respects. Rather than create the conditions necessary for sustained economic dev elopment, the radical approach led to the occurrence of a number of unforeseen circumstances that led to the collapse of the East German economy, creating lasting structural damage. Pick el claims that since the radical shock system approach was attempted under rather favourable conditions in East Germany it generates a significant amount of concern for other countries where the conditions are not so favourable.4. Sustainable developmentPopulation growth and distribution have significant roles to play in the sustainability of the worlds vast resources. Not only the number of people, but also the lifestyle, consumption patterns, and regions people inhabit and use now affect the environment. The relationship between population growth and environmental adulteration may appear to be rather straightforward. More people demand more resources and generate more waste. Clearly one of the challenges of growing population is that the mere presence of so many people sharing confine number o f resources strains the environment. But when looking at the impact of human activities, the situation is more complicated due to the wide variety of government policies, technologies, and consumption patterns worldwide.The link between population growth and the environment is found somewhere between the view that population growth is solely responsible for all environmental ills and the view that more people means the development of new technologies to overcome any environmental problems. Most environmentalists agree that population growth is only one of several interacting factors that place pressure on the environment.High levels of consumption and industrialization, inequality in wealth and land distribution, inappropriate government policies, poverty, and wasteful technologies all contribute to environmental decline. Infarct, population may not be a root cause in environmental decline, but rather just one factor among many that exacerbate or spawn the negative effects of othe r social, economic, and political factors.Bio diversity is a term applied to describe the complexity of life. It is generally measured at tercet levels the variety of species the genetic diversity found within members of the same species (what makes you several(predicate) from your neighbour) and the diversity of the ecosystems within which species live. These three levels are intimately connected. Genetic diversity is essential to the prosperity of the species, giving it the resources to adapt. And the number of species within an ecosystem is closely tie to the health and size of the ecosystem//www.ourplanet.com/aaas/pages/bio01.html (Rosen,1999).However it is defined, bio diversity is the stuff of life. However far we may be removed from wild bio diversity in our day-after-day lives, it remains the source of our food and most of our medical specialtys. In addition,15 percent of our vigour is derived from burning congeal materials. Evening the United States, wild species c ontribute around 4.5 percent of GDP(De Leo and Levin, 1997).Some of our uses are direct. Billions of people still return wild orbush food around the world. Between a fifth and a half of all food consumed by the poor in the maturation world is gathered rather than cultivated, while at global level we obtain 16 percent of our animal protein from sea fish caught in the wild. The World Health Organization(WHO) estimates that more than 60 percent of the worlds population relies on traditional plant medicines for day-to-day ancient healthcare ( Bali ck and Cox, 1996), and 3 000 plant species are used in birth control alone (My ers, 1979).The primary cause of this loss is not hunting or overexploitation,though these play a part, but loss of natural habitat. Habitat loss is generally greatest where population density is highest. A study nobodies data from 102 countries found that in the most densely populated 51 countries (averaging 168 people per square kilo meter), 5.1percent of bird species and 3.7 percent of plant species were threatened. In the 51 less densely populated countries (averaging 22people per square kilo meter), the proportions of threatened species were only half as high at 2.7 percent and 1.8 percent respectively(UNFPA, 1997).5. Political and socioeconomic geographics of EuropeThe Second World War was a catastrophe in terms of the huge loss of life and indeed by this very fact it can bee seen as an important watershed in the development of Europe. The economic and social development of Europe was severely dislocated and fractured .Industrialisation trends were re orientated to serve the demands of the war machine. Most areas of Europe by the close of the war were facing the same problem, that of reconstruction. The war created the conditions which were conducive for the progressive restructuring of social institutions.The experience of war seemed to demonstrate that central governments could control economic development and most European nations introduced some form of economic planning in the postwar period. The working classes began to have a representative with the emergence of certain parties participating in the political process. There was a shift in governmental policy to welfare state policies with post-war Europe recognizing the need to integrate the working classes into political life.There were several factors contributing to the restructuring of Europe and these are important when examining any increase in the welfare of Europes population since the Second World War. At the end of the war Europe was divided into the capitalist West and the communist East.This resulted in differential economic and social growth as well as obvious differences in political ideology.The capitalist West benefited from substantial America Aid under the Marshal Plan. Rapid industrial development was favoured in Europe to parry the perceived threat from the East, but also important was the fact that America emerged from the war with expanded industries which were also more efficient and therefore they need trading partners and investment opportunities. The Soviet Union however, were not as felicitous and suffered heavily from the destruction inflicted upon its people,agriculture and industry, all of which needed to be recreated.The war provided for opportunities of peacetime recovery and prosperity. It had forced and even closer union of science and technology and in the new world it seemed that all problems could be solved through the development and application of new technologies .Damaged production could be replaced by new equipment, upbringing efficiency and stimulating capital goods industries. The war itself had provided the impetus behind scientific and technological development,which would prove to be the key behind future European development.The great hardships of the 1930s encouraged the view that national governments had a province to protect and enhance the quality of life through improved syst ems of social security, health care and education. And it was improvements in these areas of welfare that the population of Europe has, more or less, been a benefactor. Birth rate shave declined in most European countries, whilst in Northwest Europe it was close to, or even below, the replacement levels by the early 1980s.Marriage rates also declined following a relative peak after the war.The lowest levels are again in Northwest Europe, particularly Sweden,whilst Eastern Europe displays the highest inutility rates. The cause for declining birth rates is complex.Womens rates have changed, there has been increased urbanisation leading to a decrease need for farm labour, increased opportunities for higher education, declining influence of the Church. Of great significance in explaining a decrease in birth rates, and itself an indicator of social welfare, is the infant mortality rate. Infant mortality has been significantly reduced since the second world war. In france in 1950, the in fant mortality rate was 52 per 1000 deaths before the age of 1 year old. By 1970 this had been reduced to 18 per 100. Sweden, Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands all had the lowest rates whilst Romania, Portugal and Yugoslavia suffered from the highest rates of infant mortality.In Europe, life expectancy is at its highest levels in history, with the average life expectancy being 75 years for someone in Western Europe and 72 in Eastern Europe. Death rates have decreased in virtually all(prenominal) European country since the Second World War due to improvements in medicine and medical care, sanitation, health provisions and technology. Demographic changes led to increasing proportions of the progeny and old dominating population structures. The welfare state had to respond accordingly with more emphasis having to be placed upon areas such as housing, education, child support,retirement and pensions. With increasing prosperity after the war,Europeans standard of living significantl y improved and this move toward modernity employed classical demographic features involved in the process of modernisation.Several Western European countries experienced decolonisation and reparation of their expatriates and natives of former colonial areas.In Algeria 600,000 people returned to France in 1962 following independence. The boom of the 1960s resulted in some countries needing to attract migrant labour. Indian, North Africans, Spanish, Portuguese,Italians, Yugoslavs, Greeks and Turks all poured into the Federal and Western urban and industrial centres of Europe. Migrant workers were more numerate in the Low countries and exceptionally high in Switzerland, where, in 1974, 37 per cent of the workforce were foreigners. In 1982 there were 4.2 million foreigners working in France every 10th worker in France was non-French. In Germany there were 4.6 million non-Germans, of which Turkish, Italian and Yugoslav workers were the most dominant. These immigrant workers constitute a form of sub-proletariat, taking the jobs natives didt want to do. They were(and are) often badly treated and denied political rights. They usually muster up themselves in ghettos, and in times of economic downturn find themselves the targets of racial abuse.Urbanisation was a major feature of postwar European society and was in essence a continuation of a nineteenth century trend. By 1975 most Europeans lived in cities one-third of the Greek population lived in Athens. City growth was primarily the result of rural to urban migration, with such incentives as higher wages, better housing,attractive employment, educational opportunities and more access to deflection and entertainment. Urbanisation, particularly if it is coupled with high levels of immigrants can soon lead to overcrowded housing and poor sanitation.With huge increases in car ownership and the amount of automobiles on the road together with the location of industries in, or on the periphery of, cities, some major urb an and industrial centres of Europe have become caustic areas in which to live. The subsidised housing which were created for the working classes under the social security provisions of the welfare state were often poor quality and consisted of multistorey buildings located in peripheral areas of the city.The HLM in France and estates on the north-side of Dublin, such as the Allah and Bally are examples of this type of housing. It is evident in such areas that the great disparities in income or certain social disadvantages were not dealt with despite some improvements in health-care, family allowances, education and other social services. Severe social problems brass instrumentpeople caught in the poverty cycle in these areas and, consequently, with such levels of despair, the rates for drug abuse, crime and deviancy are relatively high.The decline of the agricultural sector of the economy and the loss of farm populations was another major feature of post-war Europe. This transit ion was to be expected as the workforce moved toward an industrially-based economy and after increasingly dominated by the tertiary sector. In 1950 80 per cent of the workforce in Bulgaria was engaged in agriculture. By 1980 this figure had declined to 20 percent.This trend can be seen in several other countries, for example46% of the population in Eire were engaged in agriculture in 1949 but had reduced to 20% of the population by 1979. Spain exhibited a similar trend with 52% of the population engaged in agriculture in 1940 but by1979 this had been reduced to 20% of the population. This trend had the greatest impact on peripheral European countries industrialising after the Second World War. Technological innovations had made agriculture more intensive and mechanised. This initiated mass migration to urban areas, and also was to result in increasin